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Wary of lockdown fatigue, many governments want to avoid a return to the dark days of spring.

Governments grappling with soaring infection rates are gambling on short, sharp lockdowns to regain control of COVID-19 and avoid open-ended restrictions that damage economies' and citizens’ health.

Wales was first to announce a so-called circuit-breaker lockdown of two weeks, starting this Friday night. The Czech Republic has also just begun one for 12 days, and Northern Ireland this week introduced a four-week lockdown. Meanwhile, Ireland has opted for “Europe’s strictest regime” with a six-week order. Wary of citizens’ lockdown fatigue, many governments want to avoid a return to the dark days of spring. In particular, they want to stave off another shattering drop in economic activity as seen in the spring — when the eurozone's GDP in the second quarter fell by 12 percent.

But with softer controls struggling to rein in infection rates, leaders are faced with difficult choices: Take more limited and localized measures to keep businesses open, or accept open-ended stricter lockdown measures as the only way out of a spiraling pandemic.

The circuit-breaker approach aims to avoid the latter by nipping spiraling rates in the bud.

“We're in a situation where there are no good policy options going forward, and the circuit-breaker idea is probably the least bad of a bunch of options,” said Mike Tildesley, co-author of the circuit-breaker study that was presented to the U.K. government.

This option is meant to significantly cut infection rates; allow health services, including contact tracing, to recoup; and provide certainty for businesses and citizens. It would mirror the tight restrictions seen in spring except in one important respect: They're intentionally time-limited.

Scientists say a two-week circuit breaker with schools closed would have an effect of turning the clock back a month.

But the idea also has critics, who argue that this only kicks the can down the road while preventing many businesses from operating. In the U.K., the debate has broadly fallen along party lines, with opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer leading the charge in support of the scientists’ proposal alongside further state aid for workers, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he wants to avoid a return to the spring-style lockdown.

“We want to introduce targeted local action rather than a general lockdown allowing the economy to remain open where transmission is low and avoiding the impact on people’s lives and livelihoods,” Johnson’s spokesman told journalists earlier this week.

Seven months since the first lockdowns, balancing public health and economic needs has never been so important.

There's to date no real precedent for the circuit-breaker approach. New Zealand introduced a strict four-week lockdown very early in the pandemic and had excellent results, the researchers told journalists this week. But given how isolated it is, it’s not comparable to European countries with open borders.

The modeling presented by the U.K. researchers is based on a planned two-week lockdown from October 24 until November 7, extending the fall school break to two weeks. Restrictions aren't identified, but the stricter the measures, the better the outcomes, they say.

The minimum time frame is two weeks since this “would capture a whole generation of infection,” said Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modeling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. But longer periods were also modeled.

As far as cutting infection rates, “the longer it is, the better,” said Medley, who is also chair of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, a sub-group of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). But long lockdowns, he warned, have a “diminishing return."

"The whole point is to make it more bearable, [with] less of an impact on the economy, people lives, mental health," he said. "Business doesn’t like uncertainty, and mental health impact is greatly reduced if it’s known beforehand how long it’s going to be."

The scientists also recommend planned and repeated lockdowns around school holidays as least disruptive to children’s education. This would curb infections, buy time until a vaccine is available, prevent hospitals from being unable to cope with non-COVID-19 cases, and ultimately save lives.

A YouGov poll last week found overwhelming support in the U.K. for a half-term circuit-breaker lockdown, with 68 percent in favor and 20 percent opposing one.

But sticking points for politicians are the impact on the economy as well as adverse health outcomes beyond the issue of infections.

One staunch critic of the approach, Conservative MP Steve Baker, recently warned of “blindly” following whatever strategy scientists present. In a recent piece, he cautioned that a circuit breaker would cost the country dearly.

“The immense economic, social and non-coronavirus health damage that the first lockdown caused means that we cannot allow another,” Baker wrote.

Politicians will also have to hold their nerve to lift restrictions after a short period — another untested approach.

The challenge isn't only imposing a high level of measures "before you need to do so," said Medley, referring to localities where infections are low but could spike. It's also "releasing those measures before seeing a big impact on hospitalization and deaths."

A case in point is Scotland. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon introduced a raft of “short-term restrictions” from October 9 for 16 days, with the strictest measures across the country’s central belt. But on Thursday these restrictions were extended until November 2, after Scotland recorded 28 COVID-19 deaths, the highest since May 21.

U.K. policymakers are also looking to Wales, which is most closely following the circuit-breaker approach modeled by the researchers, but some experts warn it may be too late.

For England, there remains a small window of opportunity to introduce circuit breakers covering the fall school holiday, said Tildesley, while cautioning that businesses would not have time to prepare — a key tenet of the model.

And then there remains the question about what to do about schools, he added, pointing out: "We need to act rapidly.”

Meanwhile, businesses in Wales say they haven't had time to prepare since full details were only released Thursday, according to the BBC — four days after the announcement.

"This week should have been spent engaging with staff, contacting suppliers and informing customers," said Ben Francis, policy chair of the Federation of Small Businesses in Wales. "But many firms simply spent this time in the dark."

While getting ahead of the curve is a key aim of the circuit-breaker approach, Medley argues the model still has merit, however limited.

"It would still have a significant epidemiological impact of bringing disease down if we did it now," he said. "But the best mitigation of its negative impacts are reduced because we’ve lost the opportunity of better advertising it for this half term."

This article is part of POLITICO ’s premium policy service: Pro Health Care. From drug pricing, EMA, vaccines, pharma and more, our specialized journalists keep you on top of the topics driving the health care policy agenda. Email [email protected] for a complimentary trial.

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